Jobs and Skills Australia’s (JSA) annual employment projections offer valuable insights into how the current economic and labour market outlook may shape Australia’s future workforce. These projections serve as a useful tool for industry stakeholders and governments in guiding policy development and workforce planning.
That said, as with any model, these projections are based on a set of assumptions and carry a level of inherent uncertainty. They should be viewed as indicative of potential future trends, grounded in present knowledge, rather than as exact forecasts.
Understanding projected workforce needs is essential for aligning education, training, and employment strategies effectively.
About JSA’s 2024 Employment Projections
In 2024, JSA partnered with Victoria University to develop employment projections through to May 2034, using the Victoria University Employment Forecasting (VUEF) model. This model integrates a wide range of demographic, employment, and macroeconomic data—along with forecasts from both government and industry sources—to produce a comprehensive set of employment forecasts for Australia.
Key features of the projections include:
- 5-year outlook: Highlights near-term employment shifts.
- 10-year horizon: Captures broader, long-term structural labour market trends.
- Data breakdowns: Available by industry (1-digit ANZSIC), occupation (4-digit ANZSCO), and by state or territory.
Growth Expected Across All Industries
Total employment in the Australian economy is projected to grow by more than 6% over the next five years, reaching 14.8 million by May 2029. Over a ten-year horizon, employment is expected to grow by 14%, reaching 15.9 million by May 2034.
This represents a net increase of approximately 2 million employed people between May 2024 and May 2034, with job growth anticipated across all industries.
The primary drivers of this growth are expected to be service-based industries, particularly:
- Health Care and Social Assistance
- Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
- Accommodation and Food Services
- Retail Trade
(See Figure 1 for industry-specific projections.)
Figure 1 – Projected employment growth by Industry (1-digit ANZSIC), 5 and 10 years, Australia, May 2024
Positive Outlook for Key Occupations Across SaCSA’s sectors
The table below highlights the projected employment growth for the 4-digit ANZSCO occupations for SaCSA’s key sectors.
The employment outlook for key occupations is positive, with projected growth generally exceeding the national averages of 6% over the next 5 years and 14% over the next 10 years.
Specialist roles—such as Archivists and Massage Therapists—are expected to experience some of the highest growth rates. This is partly due to their smaller workforce sizes, which means even modest increases in demand can translate into significant percentage growth.
In contrast, large frontline roles such as Sales Assistants are projected to grow at a steadier pace, reflecting their already substantial share of the labour market.
Note: The accompanying table highlights a selection of key occupations relevant to each of SaCSA’s sectors. For the complete list of employment projections at the 4-digit ANZSCO level, please refer to the full dataset here.
Note: 2024 JSA employment projections are only available at a 4-digit ANZSCO unit group level and may include some occupations that don’t belong to a sector’s remit. For example, the Graphic and Web Designers and Illustrators occupation group includes Graphic Designers and Illustrators which are included in SaCSA’s Arts sector remit however, Multimedia and Web Designers are not.
JSA’s employment projections provide a valuable snapshot of Australia’s evolving labour market. For the sectors SaCSA serves, these insights point to robust growth opportunities and underscore the importance of aligning skills development, training, and workforce planning to build a future-ready workforce.
To learn more, visit the JSA website:
https://www.jobsandskills.gov.au/data/employment-projections
Author:
Shaer Fattah, Insights and Analytics Manager at SaCSA, leverages over a decade of experience in labour market analytics to develop and implement robust research methods that inform workforce policies.